Monday, March 09, 2009

Dickens: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times;"

Here are a couple of observations I noted in a recent economic report:

US employment numbers dropped by 651,000 jobs in February, nearly equaling the monthly declines in December and January. The national unemployment rate rose from 7.6% to 8.1%, the highest since 1983.

I finished graduate school in 1983 during a significant recession. It was very difficult to find full-time employment at that time. In fact, because I could not find work I accepted a position as a summer intern while I continued to search for a “real” job. I felt a heavy responsibility to provide for my wife and three little children and was very concerned that I might not be able to find work by summer’s end. So how did I get a job?

My manager was responsible not only for Human Resources (my educational background), but also for Corporate Services, which included all the buildings and office cubicles. Several office moves were scheduled for the summer months and I did whatever I could to help out. So instead of doing what I was educated to do, I helped plan and organize office moves. This was “down and dirty” work, often involved working late and on weekends to help with the moves when people were away from the building. Instead of working with the white collar professionals in the company, I worked in the trenches with the maintenance workers, office construction staff, and moving company staff. I think when my manager saw my willingness to pitch in and help with whatever was necessary, she decided I was worth keeping. I ended the summer with the offer of a full-time position.

The United States, China, and many countries in Europe have enacted economic stimulus packages, with the U.S. and Chinese packages proportionately larger than the European packages. Little impact will be felt before late 2009; most of the impact will appear in 2010.

Today I think it is necessary to adopt a strategy to “ride out” the recession. It seems clear that a recovery will take some time to occur. That said, I am confident that we will see better times again. During difficult times, we can all fall victim to two extremes of thought. We can mistakenly think that good times will always continue and not have a backup plan or build a safety net. I think this is what we have witnessed during much of the last thirty years. The prophets have been very clear that we should be prepared for emergencies, including loss of employment and reduction of income. Conversely, during bad times we can conclude that the future will always be bleak. Such catastrophic thinking may destroy hope that better days will come. Both extremes can cause us to make short-term decisions that have poor long-term consequences.

Life tends to follow a roller-coaster pattern, with recurring highs and lows. I once heard a speaker say that as adults our lives would likely move in and out of crisis every three months or so. At the time I thought his comment was extreme. I no longer think so. I can think of no generation that has not had serious challenges and struggles. Certainly the pioneers faced difficulties we can only imagine. Within the last hundred years the world has experienced two great world wars and countless smaller wars. Some lethal diseases, now rare, were once commonplace. And economies have fluctuated over and over again. So what we are experiencing to day, though it may be different in degree, is certainly not different in kind from what many others have seen. We have no reason to expect a life without challenge and turmoil. But that doesn’t mean we won’t be happy and experience joy in life. With patience, preparation, persistence and prayer we can – and will – weather the problems we face. “Therefore, let your hearts be comforted; for all things shall work together for good to them that walk uprightly … (D&C 100: 15)

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